Prediction accuracy
Every prediction is frozen on game day, before kickoff, and scored against the result. Nothing gets deleted after the fact.
Live predictions
No games scored yet. 1321 predictions are waiting for results.
Published on the site since launch
Backtest
53%
of 1,597 games: the most likely outcome (win/draw/loss) happened
Brier score 0.584 (lower is better; always guessing 1/3 each scores 0.667) · log loss 0.981 · mean error in goal margin 1.75
Model fit on games before 1 July 2026, scored on the 1,597 games after
Calibration
When the model gives its pick a certain chance, does it happen that often?
| Model's confidence in its pick | Games | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 40% | 54% |
| 40–50% | 641 | 45% | 42% |
| 50–60% | 409 | 55% | 53% |
| 60–70% | 273 | 64% | 58% |
| 70–80% | 150 | 74% | 74% |
| 80–90% | 80 | 85% | 84% |
| 90–100% | 18 | 93% | 83% |